“If you do it right 51 percent of the time you will end up a hero.”
Alfred P. Sloan, Jr.
Legendary chairman of General Motors.
Side note: Tim Cook presides over Apple, Inc. in its Alfred Sloan era of General Motors existence. Apple has long since transitioned into Fat American Corporatism.
Back to Alfred Sloan.
It’s heartening to think about this. You don’t have to be right all the time. Not even most of the time. In fact, it’s probably better to not focus on being right.
Alfred Sloan’s admonition can probably be revised to read as follows:
“If you do it right when it matters, it doesn’t matter how many times you do it wrong.”
Me.
This is not original, of course. Nassim Taleb theory of life, as far as I can understand his books.
Make mistakes when the downside doesn’t matter so much, but make lots of decisions. Or more precisely, do lots of things. Because decisions don’t matter. Actions matter.
Naval Ravikant talks about why Tim Cook gets paid huge money. Naval’s theory is that someone who is right 10% more than the next person will, with the effect of compounding, create outsized returns. If Tim Cook is right 70% of the time but someone else is right 60% of the time, then the fact that Tim Cook is piloting a huge enterprise means the compound effect of that extra 10% “right” will create billions of dollars of wealth.
That’s right, but be right about what matters. Being 10% better at decisions with low payoffs is of little value.
Let’s summarize:
- Don’t be concerned with being right all the time.
- In fact, be happy to be wrong frequently.
- Focus more on the payoff of the right and wrong decisions. Improve your decision-making in the payoff space, not the probability space.
In personal life this means understanding deeply what is true. This is where the #Lindy idea is useful. Then understand the Stoic perspective: what is within your control and what is not. Personal payoffs (peace of mind, living up to your principles, etc.) are where your principles are #Lindy and your actions are within your control.
In other words, the title to this post is wrong. The right title would be “What should I be right about?”